POLICY ISSUES
Too Many People Pose Global Risk, Malcolm Potts
Cairo Conference Goals Begin to Build Momentum, Nafis Sadik
Population Scapegoat for Poor Government, Jacqueline R. Kasun
Population Explosion Triggered by Wealth, Virginia Abernethy
Cairo Consensus Sparks New Hopes, Old Worries, Betsy Hartmann
China's Population Grows Despite Fertility Decline, Baochang Gu
Population and Policies in Bangladesh, Pakistan, John Cleland and Louisiana Lush
Sub-Saharan African Women Benefit from New Programs, Christine Onyango
ENERGY ISSUES
Will Consumers Benefit from New Power Era? Leonard S. Hyman and Marija Ilic
Fed's New Regulatory Role in Emerging Power Markets, Elizabeth A. Moler
Role for Regulators in New Power Market, Matthew H. Brown
Power in 21st Century: Progress or Gridlock? Theresa A. Flaim and Ross C. Hemphill
Getting It Right for Customers, E. Linn Draper, Jr.
Public Power's Future in a Competitive Market, David W. Penn
ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
Growth Imperils Parks Worldwide, D. Scott Slocombe
Protecting Nature's Wealth on a Crowded Continent, Adrian Phillips
Slovakia's Tatra Park: Troubled Green Refuge, Vladivoj Vancura
Polish National Parks: Problems, Prospects, Krzysztof R. Mazurski
Russian National Parks: Transition or Turmoil? Gary Cook
Russian Reserves Face an Uncertain Future, Nicolai Maleshin
Development Threatens Asia's Parks, Reserves, Philip Dearden and Surachet Chettanart
Tropical Asia Protects Its Natural Resources, Hemanta R. Mishra, Jeffrey A. McNeely, James W. Thorsell
People and Animals Vie for Africa's Ecosystems, Henri Nsanjama
Kenya Seeks Home for Nation's Wildlife, Mwamba H.A. Shete
POLICY ISSUES
Too Many People
Pose Global RiskMalcolm Potts
"History shows that the cruelest dictatorships are the ones that have denied people reproductive choices," says Malcolm Potts, a physician who served as the first medical director of the International Planned Parenthood Federation. Potts is currently Bixby Professor at the School of Public Health at the University of California at Berkeley.
Muddled ideological thinking also has delayed the implementation of policies and programs designed to reduce the rate of population growth.
"Efforts to focus attention on population growth as a serious global problem have been challenged repeatedly by people representing four interest groups: free-market advocates, redistribution-of-wealth advocates, women's health advocates, and the Catholic Church," Potts says.
At the 1994 World Population Conference in Bucharest, Romania, for instance, women's health advocates proposed a "medical model of contraception that would depend on a labor-intensive, clinic-based health-service system, which is in place in only a few developing countries," Potts says.
"Opponents of family planning often maintain that it is unnatural," Potts asserts. "In reality, having six or eight children is unnatural."
Cairo Conference Goals
Begin to Build MomentumNafis Sadik
Freedom of choice in reproductive matters must be based on sound medical information and convenient access to health care.
That's the conclusion of the International Conference on Population and Development, held in Cairo in 1994, says Nafis Sadik, executive director of the United Nations Population Fund headquartered in New York City.
But the road to reproductive health for women has not always been smooth. "Because poverty, lack of education, and a dearth of available information are so closely linked, those living in poorer countries often have little or no access to reproductive-health information and services," Sadik observes.
It's not just cultural barriers such as the Moslem practice of `purda,' which keeps women secluded within their families that hinder access to health care. Economic obstacles also slow progress.
"Roads, bridges, and public health are rarely thought of as related issues, but in Bangladesh and many other poor countries, one way to improve women's reproductive health would be to build better roads and bridges," Sadik notes.
Population Scapegoat
for Poor GovernanceJacqueline R. Kasun
"Economic policy, rather than overpopulation, is the main culprit in world poverty," says Jacqueline R. Kasun, professor emeritus of economics and editorial director of the Center for Economic Education at Humboldt State University in Arcata, California.
Take Ethiopia, for instance. There, a Marxist government stripped away successful individual farming practices that dated back to the days of Pharoah and replaced these practices with an inefficient system based on agricultural collectives. The government also confiscated food traders' donkeys and allowed the animals to perish.
"When the inevitable drought arrived and crops failed, there were no buffer stocks to feed the hungry and no means for transporting and distributing food aid that arrived from abroad," Kasun notes.
Forced sterilization and abortion do not improve the quality of life, and "government promotion of birth control is inherently in conflict with free choice," Kasun concludes.
Population Explosion
Triggered by WealthVirginia Abernethy
From ancient Mesopotamia to modern China, the hope of future prosperity often has triggered unsustainable population growth.
Policy decisions concerning international aid need to take that fact into account, says Virginia Abernethy, professor of psychiatry and anthropology at the Vanderbilt School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee.
"If refugees from civil strife find their lot improved through international aid, they often respond by having more children," Abernethy maintains. Thus it's important for donor nations not to to create a false and unsustainable prosperity.
The aim of this "tough love" approach to aid is not to starve populations into lower fertility rates, but to promote long-term economic growth that will help stabilize population growth rates.
"Sustained low fertility obviously is preferable to cataclysmic increases in mortality through starvation, diseases related to malnutrition, civil war, ethnic cleansing, or other conditions often associated with advanced overpopulation," Abernethy says.
When times are hard, families have often chosen to limit the size of their families to cope with their economic circumstances.
Cairo Consensus Sparks
New Hopes, Old WorriesBetsy Hartmann
The Cairo conference of 1994 helped forge a worldwide consensus on women's reproductive health issues.
However, a preoccupation with laissez-faire economics and demographic statistics has created a numbers game that threatens the overall health of men, women, and children throughout the developed world, says Betsy Hartmann, director of the Population and Development Program at Hampshire College in Amherst, Massachusetts.
While funding for reproductive health services is available, many developing countries have neglected programs designed to improve overall health.
"In Indonesia, almost twice as many family planning clinics as primary health-care centers have been built," Hartmann says.
Ironically, a lack of basic health care may increase fertility rates.
For instance, in Bangladesh, Hartman notes, "high infant and child mortality rates often are linked to high birth rates because families must have many children just to ensure that a few will survive."
China's Population Grows
Despite Fertility DeclineBaochang Gu
One fifth of the world's population lives in China; therefore, its seemingly harsh "one-child" policy is in fact a global family matter.
"No society can provide its citizens with unabridged rights and freedoms while ignoring the impacts that such measures may have on the future of society," says Baochang Gu, associate director of the China Population Information and Research Center in Beijing, China.
While China has managed to slow the rate of population growth, the country still falls short of the one-child quota, though fertility rates vary dramatically across the country.
"For instance, while Shanghai and other metropolitan areas are achieving negative population growth, many remote rural areas maintain both high birth and population growth rates," the author writes.
For China, population control is not just a numbers game. The health and well-being of its people, and the people of the world, hang in the balance.
Population and Policies
in Bangladesh, PakistanJohn Cleland
and Louisiana LushPeople in Pakistan and Bangladesh both have expressed a sincere interest in limiting the size of their families.
Why then has Bangladesh seen a dramatic reduction in its birthrate, while Pakistan's birthrate has barely declined?
"In a little more than a decade, Bangladesh's birthrate has fallen by more than 40 percent, due in large part to increased use of contraceptives," say John Cleland, professor of medical demography, and Louisiana Lush, research fellow at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in London, England.
One crucial difference between the two countries is that Bangladesh has a vigorous program of family planning that offers both sex education and access to contraceptives.
Had Pakistan adopted a similar plan, researchers estimate that by 2050 it likely would have nearly 200 million fewer people than is now projected.
"Putting family planning programs in place sooner, rather than later, can make a world of difference in the size of the next century's global population," the authors conclude.
Sub-Saharan African Women
Benefit from New ProgramsChristine Onyango
Women around the world are now speaking out in defense of their reproductive and family planning rights.
This was evidenced at the 1995 Fourth World Conference on Women in Beijing, says Christine Onyango, a research associate for the Feminist Majority Foundation in Arlington, Virginia.
Putting an end to unsafe abortions and violence against women, and increasing the responsibility that men have for promoting reproductive health and family planning is at the top of the agenda.
In Zimbabwe, for example, the Musasa project, established in 1988, has counseled battered women, while documenting the effects of violence on the nation's female population.
Unfortunately, polygamy, poverty, and violence against women persist in many African nations. Moreover, abortion is legal in only three sub-Saharan countries.
"The fact is that sub-Saharan African countries have national budgets that are barely adequate to address national priorities, let alone fund reproductive health," Onyango notes.
Return to Top
Return to FORUM Home Page
ENERGY ISSUES
Will Consumers Benefit
from New Power Era?Leonard S. Hyman
and Marija IlicTo reliably generate, transmit, and deliver electricity is no easy task.
Deregulation, which helped set the stage for the savings and loan debacle, could bring America's electric utilities system tumbling down. Is the effort worth the risks involved?
Leonard S. Hyman, senior industry advisor for Smith Barney, Inc., in New York City, and Marija Ilic, senior research scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts, think so. For one thing, the time is right.
"Today, small gas turbines generate electricity at a lower cost than many large utility units. As a result, economies of scale in generation, based on large, centralized generating units, no longer drive the industry."
However, in an open market, free access to information is essential to ensure fairness and stability. "In such a market, buyers and sellers must know the price of each component of the transaction," the authors say.
In fact, generation of electricity represents only one quarter of the costs and one aspect of the variety of services delivered.
Electric utilities, for example, maintain transmission lines, regulate voltage, and respond quickly to meet the needs of customers during peak usage times.
These "ancillary," yet vital, functions will soon be overseen by a committee comprised primarily of stakeholders representing power generators, transmission-line owners, electricity consumers, and environmental groups.
"Overall, the system currently under consideration seems to resemble the famous definition of the camel: a horse designed by a committee," the authors lament.
Then why the rush to deregulate? Hyman and Ilic maintain the nation can't afford not to.
"We should not dawdle on the way to deregulation. Each year of delay could cost consumers more than $25 billion," they conclude.
Fed's New Regulatory Role
in Emerging Power MarketsElizabeth A. Moler
Efforts to deregulate the electric utility industry are not exactly operating at the frontier of reform.
The natural gas industry has scouted out the territory, and the same regulatory agency that oversaw that transition will be establishing a few boundaries for the electric utility industry as well.
The agency in charge is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), says Elizabeth A. Moler, chair of the FERC in Washington, D.C.
The electric power industry, she adds, already is responding positively to the new competitive environment.
For example, "state regulators are taking advantage of the opportunities afforded by FERC's new regulations to provide choice to customers at the retail level," Moler says.
However, potential abuses on the new open market include price fixing and other unfair practices.
"A utility that controls all of the generation within a large geographic area may yet control prices. Regulators at the federal and state levels must guard against these problems," Moler says.
In the new world of deregulation, old anti-trust laws may be invoked to ensure that monopolies do not unfairly limit competition.
Role for Regulators
in New Power MarketMatthew H. Brown
A few ground rules will be needed to ensure that the switch to deregulation does not become an economic free-for-all.
State utility commissions can help guide utilities through an orderly transition, says Matthew H. Brown, who directs the Energy Project at the National Conference of State Legislatures.
"Although they will see their function diminish as free-market forces take hold, their role actually may increase over the short term," Brown notes.
Even when the transition is complete some 10 years from now, regulators will still be needed. Brown warns that "the commission will need to be vigilant to avert potential problems with system reliability."
In fact, the distribution of power will remain a regulated monopoly. Maintenance of transmission lines, mediation programs to address consumer complaints, and incentives for the maintenance and promotion of environmental programs will need to be overseen by state regulatory agencies, Brown says.
Power in 21st Century:
Progress or Gridlock?Theresa A. Flaim
and Ross C. HemphillResidential customers want price concessions, environmental groups desire investments in renewable energy, and utilities wish to protect their assets and maximize their profits.
"Are these conflicting objectives attainable and sustainable as markets are opened to competition?"
"Not in New York," say Theresa A. Flaim, vice president of corporate strategic planning at Niagara Mowhawk Power Company in Syracuse, New York, and Ross C. Hemphill, former director of resource strategies at Niagara Mohawk.
One reason is the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978, which locked utilities into long-term contracts to purchase electricity. When prices fell, these companies were left with costs that far exceeded current market prices for the goods and services that they needed. Utility experts have labeled these "stranded costs."
"While most people believe that nuclear power plants are the prime cause of stranded costs, for Niagara Mohawk, the root of the problem lies with contracts signed with independent power producers," the authors say.
If New York utilities are saddled with these costs, they would have little time to restructure, the authors warn, since they "would find themselves...spending the next five years or so arguing their cases in federal bankruptcy court."
However bumpy the transition to a competitive environment may be, Flaim and Hemphill believe the process is well worth the effort because it ultimately will lead to lower prices for consumers.
Getting It Right
for CustomersE. Linn Draper, Jr.
As the race to deregulate heats up, one company has set the early pace.
American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP), which serves 7 million people from Indiana to Tennessee, has already restructured itself, separating its power generation activities from its delivery of energy services. In the process, the company has wholeheartedly embraced competition, says E. Linn Draper, Jr., the chief executive officer of AEP, which is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.
"In fact, AEP was among the first electric power companies to offer access to its transmission grid to all parties under the same terms and conditions available to AEP subsidiary companies," Draper says.
Essential to the transition is the repeal of such antiquated federal laws as the Public Utilities Holding Company Act and the Public Utility Regulatory Policy Act.
"Times change, and laws that once helped achieve worthwhile objectives can ultimately stand in the way of progress," Draper says.
Public Power's Future
in a Competitive MarketDavid W. Penn
For private utilities, the ideal level playing field would be littered with the fallen bodies of their competitors.
"The fact is, we are all born monopolists, and it is the natural order of things to try to secure comfortable monopoly positions," says David W. Penn, deputy executive director of the American Public Power Association in Washington, D.C.
In the cut-throat competitive environment of deregulation, private utilities, which control 85 percent of the industry, are engaged in a campaign of disinformation, claiming that public power can offer low rates only because of generous subsidies that come at taxpayers' expense.
The fact is, investor-owned utilities themselves receive sizable benefits. "In 1993 alone, tax subsidies for private utilities cost the federal treasury and U.S. citizens almost $11 billion," Penn observes.
Competition for competition's sake and increased profits for private utilities should not be the ultimate goal of competition; instead, the goal should be to provide customers with improved services at reasonable prices.
Along the way, public power should not be abandoned, Penn cautions, because history shows that public power has provided "a reasoned, pragmatic solution to a civic need."
ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
Growth Imperils
Parks WorldwideD. Scott Slocombe
The hordes of visitors that flock to national parks—from Australia to Zimbabwe—present both a threat and an opportunity.
While their intrusion may damage natural resources, it also creates a chance to teach people about the delicate ecology of unique areas.
"National parks are uniquely suited to support ecological literacy," observes D. Scott Slocombe, associate professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies and director of Cold Regions Research Centre at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
In the Yukon, Canadian park managers have developed a model educational program.
"Kluane National Park Reserve uses a physical model of the site and facilities, a professional slide show, and other displays at its information center to tell vistors about the park, which is too rugged for many of them to enter," Slocombe notes.
Educational programs, which rely on audio-visual materials as well as booklets and brochures, are expensive. However, we cannot afford to scrimp in that department.
"Education should be one of the last, not the first, budget items to be deleted," Slocombe insists.
Protecting Nature's Wealth
on a Crowded ContinentAdrian Phillips
Europe holds the dubious distinction of having more threatened species than any other continent. Reversing that trend will require a group effort that transcends national borders.
"Rather than responding to environmental problems in an isolated, uncoordinated fashion, the nations of Europe must work together to shape the environmental policies across the continent," says Adrian Phillips, chairperson of the World Commission on Protected Areas of the World Conservation Union and a planning professor at the University of Wales in The United Kingdom.
Cooperation among the 15 member nations of the European Union has already fostered several key initiatives designed to conserve habitats, protect beleaguered species, forge a continent-wide ecological network, and provide an action plan for future conservation efforts.
These initiatives share three principles.
"First, they recognize that individual European nations' efforts to conserve natural areas are of limited value unless they are supported by a continent-wide commitment.
Second, all spring from the ecological principles articulated at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit.
Third, all acknowledge that conservation depends on successful partnerships among the governmental, private, and non-governmental sectors," Phillips says.
Slovakia's Tatra Park:
Troubled Green RefugeVladivoj Vancura
For centuries, miners, poachers, and shepherds plundered the natural resources of the Carpathian mountains.
In the aftermath of the Velvet Revolution, park lands are once again up for grabs.
"In 1991, the Directory of Tatra National Park returned roughly 45 percent of the park's territory to private individuals whose intended uses for the land ranged from continued protection to rapid commercialization and development," says Vladivoj Vancura, a ranger with the park in Slovakia.
Slovakia also wants to host the 2006 Olympics. To compete for that honor, it plans to develop a winter sports park that would threaten the park's fragile resources.
However, there is growing realization among landowners that the "long-term benefits derived from the passive enjoyment of the park's natural resources could, in fact, surpass the immediate economic gains derived from exploitation of those resources," Vancura says.
As civilization continues to encroach upon the wilderness, centuries of private ownership—interrupted for several decades by communism—may prove to be both the greatest threat and strongest deterrent to rampart development.
How the people of Slovakia choose to exercise their property rights will have a permanent impact on this nation's treasured parks.
Polish National Parks:
Problems, ProspectsKrzysztof R. Mazurski
Poland's pride in its natural resources stretches back to the 11th century, when the first king passed a decree to protect the nation's beavers.
However, the collapse of communism has turned the parks into ecological battlefields, says Krzysztof R. Mazurski, professor of geography and environmental protection at the Economic University of Wrocaw in Jelenia Góra, Poland.
"Since the fall of communism, local officials have gained a stronger voice in the decision-making process, and members of Parliament can no longer ignore their demands.
Self-governance, in fact, has become a fundamental principle in Polish politics," Mazurski says.
But the short-term interests of local residents do not always serve the long-term interest of the parks.
For example, in Tatra National Park, ski runs, which have brought economic prosperity to nearby townspeople, threaten to upset the park's delicate ecological balance.
"It took many years to put these parks in ecological jeopardy, and it will take many years to restore their health," Mazurski concludes.
Russian National Parks:
Transition or Turmoil?Gary Cook
Money that used to flow from Moscow to the outlying regions of Russia has dried up, and local governments are now responsible for protected areas in their jurisdictions.
Unfortunately, some local residents see natural resources as a valuable treasure to be plundered.
"In the eyes of many local residents, the trees, minerals, and wildlife that parks and reserves are designed to protect could provide sources of income if the government would open the land to exploitation," says Gary Cook, director of Earth Island Institute's Russian-American Environmental Exchange Program headquartered in San Francisco.
In response to such threats, park and reserve officials have created new regional associations that "may prove critical in lobbying efforts to secure more funds from local and national governments," Cook says.
Additional funding also may come from such external non-governmental groups as the Nature Conservancy and the World Wildlife Federation, which have offered to lend a helping hand.
"Such groups may be instrumental in reversing the nation's indifference toward its parks and reserves," Cook says.
Russian Reserves Face
an Uncertain FutureNicolai Maleshin
It's not just the age-old problems of poaching, logging, and human settlement that threaten the long-term health of one of Russia's oldest natural reserves.
The Central-Chernozem Biosphere Reserve, named for its rich, black soil, has become a victim of perestroika, says Nicola Maleshin, director of the reserve in Kursk, located about 350 miles south of Moscow.
For example, when troops were withdrawn from previously occupied territories, they settled in installations near the reserve's borders. The result: air, soil, and water pollution that is straining the environment.
"One indicator of the ecological stress faced by the reserve is the decline in birds of prey such as the booted eagle, goshawk, and falcons," Maleshin says. And the problems are not just limited to this one endangered reserve.
"Given the dire circumstances now facing Russia, preserving nature is not likely to be a priority," Maleshin says.
"Of all the problems facing Russia's reserves, the most difficult may be the disorder, uncertainty, and economic hardship that now engulf Russia," Maleshin maintains.
Development Threatens
Asia's Parks, ReservesPhilip Dearden and
Surachet ChettamartIn Thailand, destruction of park lands has not been confined to the poaching of animals and plants. Well-intentioned economic development plans also have contributed to environmental degradation.
"Consumption of park resources occurs as a result of economic development, including road construction," say Philip Dearden, professor of geography with the University of Victoria in British Columbia, Canada, and Surachet Chettamart, assistant professor of forestry with Kasetsart University in Bangkok, Thailand.
In Thailand's oldest national park, Khao Yai, established in 1962, a 30-mile road now bisects the park, destroying the natural canopy and speeding drivers on to their destinations.
There is even speculation the road led to the deaths of eight elephant calves found at the bottom of a waterfall in 1992. "The calves probably slipped while traversing a new, precipitous trail and fell to their deaths," the authors say.
"There is little cause for optimism regarding the overall status of national parks in Southeast Asia," the authors conclude.
Tropical Asia Protects
Its Natural ResourcesHemanta R. Mishra, Jeffrey A. McNeely, James W. Thorsell
The stunning beauty and rich diversity of species found in tropical Asia have attracted the attention of conservationists from around the world.
The 1982 Third World Congress on National Parks in Bali, "the first such event to be staged in a developing country, demonstrated that protected areas not only hold aesthetic significance but are vital to sustainable development."
That's the conclusion of Hemanta R. Mishra, an environmental specialist with the Global Environment Facility in Washington, D.C.; Jeffrey A. McNeely, the facility's chief scientist; and James W. Thorsell, head of The World Conservation Union's Natural Heritage Programme in Gland, Switzerland.
Local community involvement is essential to long-term conservation efforts, the authors insist.
In Wasur National Park, in Indonesia's Irian Jaya province near Papua New Guinea, "traditional gardening sites have been protected for tribal use. In addition, residents of the 13 in-park villages may remain, and traditional hunting will be permitted," the authors say.
Community involvement, improved management plans, and education and research will be needed to strike a balance between sustainable native lifestyles and ecological preservation.
People and Animals Vie
for Africa's EcosystemsHenri Nsanjama
Competition for habitat between humans and animals has frayed the traditional fabric of African life. Nowhere is the unraveling more obvious than on the borders of the national parks.
"In many cases, local inhabitants are forbidden from even setting foot inside national parks without a permit," says Henri Nsanjama, vice president for the African and Madagascar Program of the World Wildlife Fund in Washington, D.C.
Animals, on the other hand, occasionally stray beyond the borders in search of food. A herd of elephants can wipe out an entire village's yearly supply of food and seed in one night.
The greatest threat to endangered species is not the wanton slaughter of animals, but "the impending conflict between people and animals for a finite amount of living space," Nsanjama notes.
To ensure harmony between humans and their environment, rural communities must be able to realize tangible economic benefits from conservation and ecotourism.
Kenya Seeks Home
for Nation's WildlifeMwamba H.A. Shete
Ironically, attempts by Western imperial powers over the past century to protect Kenya's wildlife have disrupted the traditional bonds between the native population and nature. As a result, for some landowners, wildlife is considered the enemy.
"Until 1976, Kenya law allowed sport hunting for wealthy outsiders, yet it forbade subsistence cropping that had been part of centuries-old traditions," says the late Mwamba H.A. Shete, former deputy director of the East African Wildlife Society in Nairobi, Kenya.
Shete insists that game reserves are not just zoologic havens. Instead, wildlife managers must consider the reserves' overall social and economic impacts.
"Indigenous institutions, which have used wildlife in a sustainable fashion in the past, must be resurrected," Shete says.
"In short, wildlife and ecological conservation ultimately depend on our societal will, grounded in the recognition of our obligation to future generations," Shete says.
